"Teapot Tape" Recording

There is nothing of import or indeed anything coming even close to embarrassing on the so-called "teapot tapes" recorded between John Banks and John Key before the 2011 election.

All whipped up my a brain-dead left media with a story to manufacture in the absence of any real scandal.

If you can hear it, have a listen.

Try not to go to sleep in the first minute.

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Steve Jobs Biography - By Walter Isaacson


c Darren Rickard 2012

2011 Election result a big mandate for welfare reform

The overwhelming win for John Key in the 2011 Election and the decimation of the vote for the Labour Party is a clear mandate for the party to follow through with their pre-election policies.

Asset sales, education and government department reform, just to name a few, should be just the start.

Perhaps the biggest mandate was for welfare reform as minister for welfare Paula Bennett was returned with a higher margin than in 2008.

In that seat she had competition from Carmel Sepeloni and the Labour Party's old ideas about extending welfare while National's policy of reforming welfare was given the big tick with Bennett's return.

This is an important overall as our welfare system is clearly unsustainable, especially at this time of economic uncertainty and need for fiscal restraint.

The National election win means the country can begin this reform and begin to turn around the problems that welfare has caused; crime, unemployment, child abuse and death and generations of people who have become dependent on the State (State = taxpayer of course).

The new Government has been given a mandate for reform of the Welfare State and if done correctly could be a turning point in a country saturated by dependence. A turning point that will turn dependence and hopelessness into independence and dare I say it a brighter future.

As the Labour Government of the 1930s introduced the welfare state and set this country on a downward slide to the present day, National has a chance to reverse the notion that your neighbour owes you a living and can pick your pockets at will, to an ingrained obligation that we are all responsible for ourselves and welfare should be in the hands of individuals and families and not the heavy hand of a failed state apparatus.

National have the mandate but do they have the will to put a line in the sand and turn this country into a truly great nation where its citizens look to themselves for inspiration instead of the State (again see your fellow taxpayer) and the next welfare check?

I will watch with much interest.

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2011 New Zealand Election Results

Election Results -- Overall Status

Polling Places Counted: 6,310 of 6,310 (100.0%) Total Votes Counted: 2,014,334 Special Votes: 220,720 Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places: 1,222 Party Party Votes % Votes Electorate Seats List Seats Total Seats National Party 957,769 47.99 41 19 60 Labour Party 541,499 27.13 22 12 34 Green Party 211,931 10.62 0 13 13 New Zealand First Party 135,865 6.81 0 8 8 Māori Party 26,887 1.35 3 0 3 ACT New Zealand 21,446 1.07 1 0 1 Mana 19,898 1.00 1 0 1 United Future 12,159 0.61 1 0 1 Conservative Party 55,070 2.76 0 0 0 Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 9,516 0.48 0 0 0 Democrats for Social Credit 1,432 0.07 0 0 0 Libertarianz 1,405 0.07 0 0 0 Alliance 1,069 0.05 0 0 0 69 52 121

Election Results -- Electorate Status

Electorate names in GREEN have Final results. Electorate names in ORANGE are still being counted. Click on electorate for details. Electorate Result Leading Candidate 2nd Place Margin Auckland Central 100.0% KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 535 Bay of Plenty 100.0% RYALL, Tony (NAT) DEVOY-HEENA, Carol (LAB) 16,720 Botany 100.0% ROSS, Jami-Lee (NAT) WU, Chao-Fu (LAB) 10,054 Christchurch Central 100.0% BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 0 Christchurch East 100.0% DALZIEL, Lianne (LAB) GILMORE, Aaron (NAT) 4,954 Clutha-Southland 100.0% ENGLISH, Bill (NAT) LOO, Tat (LAB) 14,915 Coromandel 100.0% SIMPSON, Scott (NAT) KININMONTH, Hugh (LAB) 11,800 Dunedin North 100.0% CLARK, David (LAB) WOODHOUSE, Michael (NAT) 3,304 Dunedin South 100.0% CURRAN, Clare (LAB) HAYES, Joanne (NAT) 3,867 East Coast 100.0% TOLLEY, Anne (NAT) MACKEY, Moana (LAB) 4,487 East Coast Bays 100.0% McCULLY, Murray (NAT) GOLDSMITH, Vivienne (LAB) 13,479 Epsom 100.0% BANKS, John (ACT) GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT) 2,485 Hamilton East 100.0% BENNETT, David (NAT) ORGAD, Sehai (LAB) 7,708 Hamilton West 100.0% MACINDOE, Tim (NAT) MORONEY, Sue (LAB) 4,059 Helensville 100.0% KEY, John (NAT) GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy (LAB) 19,116 Hunua 100.0% HUTCHISON, Paul (NAT) HILLS, Richard (LAB) 15,514 Hutt South 100.0% MALLARD, Trevor (LAB) QUINN, Paul (NAT) 4,193 Ilam 100.0% BROWNLEE, Gerry (NAT) PARSONS, John (LAB) 11,935 Invercargill 100.0% ROY, Eric (NAT) SOPER, Lesley (LAB) 5,766 Kaikōura 100.0% KING, Colin (NAT) COLLYNS, Liz (LAB) 10,534 Mana 100.0% FAAFOI, Kris (LAB) PARATA, Hekia (NAT) 1,857 Māngere 100.0% SIO, Sua William (LAB) HAUITI, Claudette (NAT) 13,356 Manukau East 100.0% ROBERTSON, Ross (LAB) BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh (NAT) 13,850 Manurewa 100.0% WALL, Louisa (LAB) CALDER, Cam (NAT) 7,230 Maungakiekie 100.0% LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 2,787 Mt Albert 100.0% SHEARER, David (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 9,055 Mt Roskill 100.0% GOFF, Phil (LAB) BLUE, Jackie (NAT) 6,383 Napier 100.0% TREMAIN, Chris (NAT) NASH, Stuart (LAB) 3,382 Nelson 100.0% SMITH, Nick (NAT) STREET, Maryan (LAB) 6,663 New Lynn 100.0% CUNLIFFE, David (LAB) GROSER, Tim (NAT) 4,475 New Plymouth 100.0% YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT) LITTLE, Andrew (LAB) 4,130 North Shore 100.0% BARRY, Maggie (NAT) CLARK, Ben (LAB) 13,739 Northcote 100.0% COLEMAN, Jonathan (NAT) GILLON, Paula (LAB) 8,535 Northland 100.0% SABIN, Mike (NAT) STEWART, Lynette (LAB) 10,655 Ōhariu 100.0% DUNNE, Peter (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 1,646 Ōtaki 100.0% GUY, Nathan (NAT) FOSTER, Peter (LAB) 5,099 Pakuranga 100.0% WILLIAMSON, Maurice (NAT) KAUSHAL, Sunny (LAB) 12,879 Palmerston North 100.0% LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) HAPETA, Leonie (NAT) 3,001 Papakura 100.0% COLLINS, Judith (NAT) MIKA, Jerome (LAB) 9,339 Port Hills 100.0% DYSON, Ruth (LAB) CARTER, David (NAT) 2,925 Rangitata 100.0% GOODHEW, Jo (NAT) BLANCHARD, Julian (LAB) 6,006 Rangitīkei 100.0% McKELVIE, Ian (NAT) PAGANI, Josie (LAB) 8,741 Rimutaka 100.0% HIPKINS, Chris (LAB) FLETCHER, Jonathan (NAT) 3,126 Rodney 100.0% MITCHELL, Mark (NAT) CRAIG, Colin (CNSP) 11,011 Rongotai 100.0% KING, Annette (LAB) FINLAYSON, Christopher (NAT) 8,022 Rotorua 100.0% McCLAY, Todd (NAT) CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie) (LAB) 6,867 Selwyn 100.0% ADAMS, Amy (NAT) McLEAN, Jo (LAB) 17,708 Tāmaki 100.0% O'CONNOR, Simon (NAT) BAKULICH, Nick Iusitini (LAB) 16,257 Taranaki-King Country 100.0% ARDERN, Shane (NAT) BARKER, Rick (LAB) 14,093 Taupō 100.0% UPSTON, Louise (NAT) CAMPBELL, Frances (LAB) 13,049 Tauranga 100.0% BRIDGES, Simon (NAT) HORAN, Brendan (NZF) 15,812 Te Atatū 100.0% TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) HENARE, Tau (NAT) 4,653 Tukituki 100.0% FOSS, Craig (NAT) HAYDON-CARR, Julia (LAB) 9,032 Waikato 100.0% TISCH, Lindsay (NAT) SUTTON, Kate (LAB) 12,965 Waimakariri 100.0% WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) 395 Wairarapa 100.0% HAYES, John (NAT) BOTT, Michael (LAB) 6,695 Waitakere 100.0% BENNETT, Paula (NAT) SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) 349 Waitaki 100.0% DEAN, Jacqui (NAT) MONKS, Barry (LAB) 12,963 Wellington Central 100.0% ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FOSTER-BELL, Paul (NAT) 5,111 West Coast-Tasman 100.0% O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB) AUCHINVOLE, Chris (NAT) 2,287 Whanganui 100.0% BORROWS, Chester (NAT) McDOUALL, Hamish (LAB) 4,786 Whangarei 100.0% HEATLEY, Phil (NAT) NEWMAN, Pat (LAB) 11,674 Wigram 100.0% WOODS, Megan (LAB) COLLINS, Sam (NAT) 1,533 Hauraki-Waikato 100.0% MAHUTA, Nanaia (LAB) GREENSILL, Angeline (MANA) 5,373 Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 100.0% HOROMIA, Parekura (LAB) RAIHANIA, Na (MAOR) 5,924 Tāmaki Makaurau 100.0% SHARPLES, Pita (MAOR) JONES, Shane (LAB) 746 Te Tai Hauāuru 100.0% TURIA, Tariana (MAOR) PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata (LAB) 2,760 Te Tai Tokerau 100.0% HARAWIRA, Hone Pani Tamati Waka Nene (MANA) DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) 874 Te Tai Tonga 100.0% TIRIKATENE, Rino (LAB) KĀTENE, Rāhui (MAOR) 1,445 Waiariki 100.0% FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James (MAOR) SYKES, Annette Te Imaima (MANA) 1,820

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Labour's Capital Gains tax to impact negatively on house prices

The impact on the economy of a 15% capital gains tax (CGT) proposed by Labour will be huge. Not only will all asset classes be negatively impacted directly but the 15% tax on rental housing will have a direct impact on the selling prices of the family home.

The 15% tax on rental housing will almost immediately affect that sector as shortly after election day investors would want to sell before the CGT is imposed in 2013. It is hard to tell by how much but in a depressed market with increased selling pressure you don't have to be Einstein to figure out it will be substantial negative impact.

The spill-off of that will be pressure from falling rental house values impacting on sellers of private homes. These are of course homes that kiwis generally have their biggest investment in.

Long-term a CGT and its impact on house prices may be debatable in terms of its influence but in the short to medium term it is economics 101 that prices for the family home will fall.

Given a more robust economy, sustainable rising house prices and good demand a CGT may not have been such a bad thing in terms of its economic kick but in the most uncertain economic times since the Great Depression a CGT has the potential to kick-off a major housing sell-off and a consequent drop in house prices.

The fallout from that is obvious. Less confidence in people's personal financial situation and a resultant slowdown in consumer spending and a loss of jobs.

Labour really need to think hard about this if they are lucky enough to gain enough votes on November 26. It may have support from left commentators like Gareth Morgan, Bernard Hickey and the hapless Rod Oram but it is probably more akin to an exercise in economic suicide rather than a good way to raise more taxes - especially given the tough times that we are currently facing and will continue to face for years to come.

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Fairfax Media Poll: 23 November 2011

Full Poll

As most wise pundits have been saying over the last week the illegal taping of the Prime Minister and his principled stand against the perpetrator has been good for Key.

This latest poll takes support for National back to the trend we have seen for most of this year - support well over 50% - but shows Labour continuing to slide in support well below 30%

As I have been saying for the majority of 2011, Key is set to give Goff a good arse kicking on election day and in all possibility we will see a complete meltdown for the Labour party vote.

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C c c Darren Rickard 2011