Monday, 23 June 2008

STUFF.CO.NZ: Colmar Brunton Political Poll

Sunday, 22 June 2008, Stuff.co.nz


Labour is taking a hammering in the polls with the third poll in as many days showing a massive 20-plus gap between National and Labour.

A TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight had National on 55 per cent with Labour lagging behind on 29 per cent support.

This followed yesterday's Fairfax Media poll by AC Nielsen showing National winning 54 per cent of the party vote against Labour's 30 per cent.

The latest Roy Morgan poll also shows a large gap with National support up two to 52.5 per cent while Labour drops 0.5 to 31.5 per cent backing.

The TV One poll gives National more than enough seats to govern in its own right.

This poll has the Greens on 7 per cent support, the Maori Party 4.4 per cent, while New Zealand First has the backing of 3.2 per cent of voters, meaning it would be out of Parliament unless leader Winston Peters wins Tauranga.

National would have 68 seats compared to Labour's 36 seats. The Maori Party would have six seats, the Greens nine seats, and - assuming their leaders held their seats - United Future, ACT and the Progressives would each have a seat.

National leader John Key also had a solid lead in the popularity stakes.

He was the preferred prime minister of 38 per cent of voters, ahead of Prime Minister Helen Clark on 27 per cent. Mr Peters was the preferred prime minister of 4 per cent.

The TV One poll sampled 1000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

The Greens held the same rating of 7 per cent in yesterday's Fairfax and the latest Roy Morgon poll.

In the Fairfax poll, NZ First was on 3 per cent, the Maori Party 2 per cent, while ACT and United Future both attracted 1 per cent support.

In the Roy Morgan poll, NZ First was on 4 per cent support, the Maori Party had 2 per cent support, as did ACT, while United Future gained just 0.5 per cent backing.

The Roy Morgan poll also did a regional analysis which showed that even in Wellington, where support for Labour had been strong, National's vote was ahead of Labour.

Pollster Gary Morgan said that at 52.5 per cent, National's support was the highest it had been since the last election, which showed New Zealand voters were looking for a change.

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