Friday, 18 July 2008

Roy Morgan Poll : July 18 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Political Poll continues a trend started 12 months ago of a huge gap between National and Labour. The latest poll continues this trend.


Finding No. 4308 - Latest Roy Morgan Poll on New Zealand voter intention.: July 18, 2008

In mid July 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 87 (down 1) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating although up 3.7 points, is also at a near record low 85.7.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Labour Government of Helen Clark (31%) failing to make any inroads into the lead of the National Party (52%).

“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (85.7, up 3.7 points) remains near its record low with an equal record majority of New Zealanders (64%) saying they expect bad economic times over the next 12 months.

“These results present Helen Clark with a huge challenge to gain re-election. At the latest, the New Zealand Election must be held by early November and time is quickly running out for Clark to find away to connect with the electorate.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 871 electors from June 30 — July 13, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

Labour

National

Progressive

Party

NZ First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002

41.3

20.9

1.7

10.4

7

6.7

n/a

7.1

6.6

General Election, September 17, 2005

41.1

39.1

1.16

5.72

5.3

2.67

2.12

1.51

2.48

MORGAN POLL

September 20 - October 2, 2005

36.5

41.5

1

4.5

9

3

1

1.5

3

October 4-16, 2005
39
40.5
1 5 7 3.5 2 1.5 0.5
October 18-31, 2005
37.5 40 0.5 6 9 3.5 1 1 1.5
November 1-14, 2005
37.5 40 0.5 7 7 3 2 2 1
November 15-27, 2005
39 40.5 1 5.5 8.5 2 1 1.5 1
November 28 - December 9, 2005
40 40 0.5 6 7.5 2.5 1 1.5 1
January 4-12, 2006
40.5 42.5 0.5 4.5 6.5 1.5 2 0.5 1.5
January 13—23, 2006
39 40.5 0 4.5 8.5 3 1.5 1.5 1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006
38.5 39 0.5 5.5 9.5 3 1.5 2.5 0
February 7-19, 2006
40 40 0.5 3.5 10 1.5 2.5 1.5

0.5

February 22 - March 6, 2006
43 39 0.5 4.5 7.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1
March 7-19, 2006
42.5 41 0 3.5 7.5 2 2 1 0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006
40 43 0.5 4.5 6.5 1.5 1.5 1 1.5
April 3-16, 2006
41.5 40 1 3.5 7 2 2 2.5 0.5
April 17-30, 2006
40.5 40.5 0.5 3.5 8.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 -
May 1-14, 2006
39.5 41 0.5 5 7.5 3 1 1.5 1
May 15-28, 2006
41 44 0.5 3 6.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
May 29 — June 11, 2006
40 44.5 - 4.5 6.5 2 1 1.5 -
June 12-25, 2006
37 45 0.5 5 6.5 1.5 2 1.5 1
July 3-16, 2006
43 39 - 4.5 8 2 1 1.5 1
July 17 - 30, 2006
40 42 - 3.5 8.5 2 2 1 1
July 31 - August 13, 2006
39 41 - 3.5 9 3 2 1.5 1
August 14-27, 2006
38.5 44 0.5 4 7 1 2.5 1.5 1
August 28 - September 10, 2006
41 38 0.5 5.5 8.5 2 3 1.5 ^
September 16 - October 1, 2006
36 41.5 - 7 8.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 0.5
October 2-15, 2006
40 40 ^ 5 8.5 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
October 16-29, 2006
38.5 41 ^ 3 8 3 2.5 1.5 2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006
38.5 42.5 0.5 5 7.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006
37.5 42.5 ^ 4.5 8 3 2 1.5 1
November 27 - December 12, 2006
37.5 44.5 0.5 4 9.5 2 1 0.5 0.5
January 3-21, 2007
41 41 0.5 4 7.5 1 2 1.5 1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007
39.5 41.5 0.5 4 8 1.5 2 2.5 0.5
February 6-18, 2007
36 48.5 ^ 3 8.5 1.5 1.5 1 -
February 19 - March 4, 2007
36 45 0.5 2 8.5 1.5 3.5 2.5 0.5
March 5-18, 2007
37.5 45 ^ 4 7.5 1.5 3.5 1 -
March 19 - April 2, 2007
35.5 46 ^ 3.5 9.5 1 2.5 1 1
April 3-16, 2007
33.5 45.5 ^ 6 8.5 2 2 1 1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007
36 49.5 ^ 4.5 6 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5
May 7-20, 2007
32 49 0.5 4.5 7 1.5 2.5 1.5 1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007
33.5 50.5 - 3.5 6.5 2 1.5 2 0.5
June 4-17, 2007
36 49.5 0.5 3 6.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1
June 18 - July 1, 2007
34 48.5 1 2.5 8.5 1.5 2 1 1
July 2-15, 2007
36 47 0.5 5 6.5 1 2 1.5 0.5
July 16-29, 2007
35 49 0.5 4 6 0.5 3 0.5 1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007
31 50.5 0.5 4 7 2 3 1.5 0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007
34 48 0.5 2.5 9.5 0.5 3 1 1
September 3-16, 2007
35 49 ^ 2.5 7.5 1 3 1.5 0.5
September 17-30, 2007
33 48.5 0.5 3 9.5 1.5 2.5 1 0.5
October 1-14, 2007
39 45.5 ^ 3 7.5 1.5 2 0.5 1
October 15-28, 2007
40.5 45 ^ 3.5 6.5 1.5 1.5 1 0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007
34 48 ^ 5.5 7.5 1 2.5 1 0.5
November 12-25, 2007
35 48 0.5 5 6.5 0.5 2.5 1.5 0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007
34.5 47.5 0.5 5 6 1.5 2 2

1

January 3-20, 2008
33.5 52 0.5 3.5 6.5 0.5 2 1 0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008
36.5 45.5 0.5 4 9 0.5 1.5 2 0.5
February 4-17, 2008
32.5 51.5 0.5 3 8 0.5 3 0.5 0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008
35
49.5
0.5
4
7
0.5
2
1
0.5
March 3-16, 2008
34
51
0.5
3
6.5
1
2
2
0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008
34.5
47
0.5
4
9
0.5
3
1.5
^
April 7 - 20, 2008
35.5
50
^
3.5
6.5
0.5
2.5
1.5
^
April 21 - May 4, 2008
35.5
49.5
^
4.5
6.5
1
2
1
^
May 5-18, 2008
35
49
^
4
7.5
0.5
2.5
1
0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008
32
50.5
0.5
4
7
1
3
1.5
0.5
June 2 - 15, 2008
31.5
52.5
^
4
7
0.5
2
2
0.5
June 16 - 29, 2008
30.5 51.5 ^ 4 8 1 2.5 2 0.5
June 30-July 13, 2008
31 52 0.5 6.5 7.5 1 1 0.5 ^

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL

Labour

National

Progressive

Alliance

NZ

First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July 2006

38

44.5

0.5

5.5

6

2

1.5

1.5

0.5

August 2006

38.5

43.5

^

3

8.5

2.5

2

1.5

0.5

September 2006

41

41.5

0.5

2.5

8

2.5

1.5

1.5

1

October 2006

35

44.5

^

5

9.5

2

2

2

^

November 2006

33

47

0.5

5.5

8

1.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

December 2006

36

46

^

4

9

1.5

2

1

0.5

January 2007

38

44

0.5

3.5

7.5

1.5

2

1.5

1.5

February 2007

34.5

49.5

0.5

3.5

6.5

0.5

1

3

1

March 2007

37.5

46

^

2.5

8

1.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

April 2007

35.5

45

^

2.5

10

2

2.5

2

0.5

May 2007

35

48

^

3.5

7

2

3

0.5

1

June 2007

30.5

54.5

^

3.5

6.5

1

1

2

1

July 2007

32.5

52

^

2

5.5

2

3

2

1

August 2007

30

53

^

4.5

6.5

1.5

2.5

1

1

September 2007

32.5

54.5

^

2

6.5

^

3.5

0.5

0.5

October 2007

35.5

51

^

2.5

6.5

1

2.5

1

^

November 2007

36

50

^

5

4.5

0.5

2.5

1

0.5

December 2007

33.5

51.5

^

4

5

1

2

2.5

0.5

January 2008

34

52

^

4

7

0.5

1

1.5

^

February 2008

36

48

0.5

2.5

8

0.5

2

2

0.5

March 2008

32.5

52

0.5

3

7.5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

April 2008

32.5

51

^

3.5

8.5

^

1.5

2.5

0.5

May 2008

33.5

51.5

^

4

6.5

1

2

1

0.5

June 2008

32

51.5

0.5

3.5

7

0.5

2.5

2

0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL

Labour

National

Progressive

Alliance

NZ

First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July — August 2006

47.5

36

^

2.5

7.5

1.5

2

2

1

September — October 2006

50

32.5

0.5

1.5

8

2

1.5

2.5

1.5

November — December 2006

44.5

36.5

^

1.5

9

3.5

2

1.5

1.5

January — February 2007

44

38

0.5

1.5

11.5

1

2

1

0.5

March — April 2007

41.5

38.5

^

4

8.5

2

4

0.5

1

May — June 2007

36.5

43.5

^

3

10.5

2

2

1.5

1

July — August 2007

40.5

41.5

0.5

2.5

9

2

2.5

1.5

^

September — October 2007

39.5

38

1

2.5

13.5

2

2

1

0.5

November — December 2007

34

41

0.5

3

13

2

2.5

2.5

1.5

January — February 2008

39.5

42

^

3.5

10

0.5

3

1

0.5

March — April 2008

40

43.5

^

1.5

11.5

0.5

1.5

1

0.5

May — June 2008

38

44.5

^

3

9

1

1.5

2.5

0.5

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL

Labour

National

Progressive

Alliance

NZ

First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July — August 2006

42

41

^

2.5

10

2

0.5

1

0.5

September — October 2006

39

40

0.5

6.5

8

1.5

0.5

2.5

1.5

November — December 2006

43.5

36.5

1

5

8.5

2.5

0.5

2

1

January — February 2007

38

40

1

3

11

2.5

1

2.5

1

March — April 2007

33.5

43.5

1

6

10

2.5

1

1.5

1

May — June 2007

38

47.5

1

2.5

6.5

1

1.5

1

1

July — August 2007

36

46

1.5

5

7

1.5

1

^

2

September — October 2007

43

42.5

0.5

1

8

1

2

1

1

November — December 2007

39

47.5

1

3.5

7

0.5

0.5

1

^

January — February 2008

29

57

1

3

8

0.5

1

0.5

^

March — April 2008

39.5

44

1

2

8.5

1

1.5

1.5

1

May — June 2008

38

49.5

^

3.5

6.5

0.5

1

0.5

0.5

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL

Labour

National

Progressive

Alliance

NZ

First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July — August 2006

36.5

43.5

^

6

7

2

3

1.5

0.5

September — October 2006

34.5

42

^

8

7.5

1.5

4.5

1.5

0.5

November — December 2006

35.5

44.5

^

5

7

2.5

3.5

1

1

January — February 2007

37

45

^

5.5

6

1.5

3.5

1

0.5

March — April 2007

32

49.5

^

5

6.5

1

4

1.5

0.5

May — June 2007

33.5

51.5

^

5.5

4.5

1.5

2

1

0.5

July — August 2007

32

50

0.5

4.5

7

1

3.5

1

0.5

September — October 2007

32

49

^

4.5

8.5

1

4

0.5

0.5

November — December 2007

35.5

46.5

^

6

5.5

1

3.5

1

1

January — February 2008

32

50

0.5

4.5

7

0.5

4

0.5

1

March — April 2008

31

51.5

^

6

5.5

0.5

4

1

0.5

May — June 2008

31

51.5

^

5

6

0.5

4

1.5

0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL

Labour

National

Progressive

Alliance

NZ

First

Green

Party

United

Future

Maori

Party*

ACT NZ

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

July — August 2006

41

40.5

^

3

11

2.5

0.5

^

1.5

September — October 2006

43.5

42

^

3.5

7

2

1

1

^

November — December 2006

40.5

42.5

1

2.5

9

3

1

^

0.5

January — February 2007

46.5

40.5

^

1.5

8.5

1.5

^

0.5

1

March — April 2007

40

44

^

3

10

1

1

0.5

0.5

May — June 2007

36

49.5

^

3

7

1

1

1.5

1

July — August 2007

38

46

1

3

7

1

1.5

0.5

2

September — October 2007

35.5

49.5

^

1.5

8.5

2

1

1.5

0.5

November — December 2007

39

44.5

^

5

9

2

^

0.5

^

January — February 2008

34.5

51

^

3.5

9

0.5

^

1

0.5

March — April 2008

40.5

49.5

^

1.5

5

1.5

1.5

^

0.5

May — June 2008

33

52

^

3.5

9.5

0.5

1

0.5

^

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates


Aug 20-Sep 2,

2007

Sep 3-16,

2007

Sep 17-30,

2007

Oct 1-14,

2007

Oct 15-28,

2007

Oct 29-Nov 11,

2007

Nov 12-25,

2007

Nov 26-Dec 9,

2007

Jan 3-20,

2008

Jan 21-Feb 3,

2008

Feb 4-17,

2008


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

51.5

54

49.5

53

50.5

43.5

47

47.5

46.5

46

47

Wrong direction

35.5

32.5

34.5

32

33

37.5

37

38

39

38.5

41

Roy Morgan GCR#

116

121.5

115

121

117.5

106

110

109.5

107.5

107.5

106

Can’t say

13

13.5

16

15

16.5

19

16

14.5

14.5

15.5

12

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates


Feb 18-Mar 2,

2008

Mar 3-16,

2008

Mar 24- Apr 6,

2008

Apr 7-20,

2008

April 21-May 4, 2008

May 5-18,

2008

May 19-June 1, 2008 June 2-15, 2008 June 16-29, 2008 June 30-July 13, 2008

%

% % % % % % % % %

Right direction

52.5

45.5 47.5 50.5 44.5 38 38 42.5 37 36.5

Wrong direction

34

37.5 37.5 34.5 40.5 44.5 44.5 40.5 49 49.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

118.5

108 110 116 104.5 93.5 93.5 102 88 87

Can’t say

13.5

17 15 15 15 17.5 17.5 17 14 14

Total

100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

Finding No. 4308 is taken from Computer Report No. 2253

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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