Friday, 10 October 2008

POLL: Roy Morgan Poll, Oct 10 2008

A big surprise from the latest Roy Morgan poll, is that it shows the gap between National and labour has narrowed to 3 percentage points.

In early October 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 40.5% (down 7%), a tight lead over the Labour Party 37.5% (up 1%). If the Election were this weekend there would be a hung Parliament in New Zealand with either major party capable of forming a governing coalition.

Support for the Greens 9% (up 2.5%) has jumped to its highest level since April, while support for NZ First is 4% (down 1%), ACT NZ 3.5% (up 2%), the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), Progressive Alliance 1% (up 1%), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (up 0.5%).


The poll goes against all other polls taken over the last few years that have shown the gap between the two only as close as 10 points but as high as 24.

Of the two most recent polls by other polling companies the gap was wider and consistent with the trend of National being well ahead of the incumbent Labour Government.

The TV One Colmar Brunton out October 5 showed National well ahead on 52% with Labour on 33%.

The TV 3 TNS poll out September 28 had National on 49% and Labour on 36%.

There is a possibility that the Roy Morgan poll is a rogue one and we will have to compare them to the next Fairfax and Herald Digipolls to see if there is a similar shift in support to Labour.

Until then, today's Roy Morgan poll results can be largely discounted.

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