Sunday, 5 October 2008

POLL: TV One Colmar Brunton Poll, Oct 5 2008

It just keeps getting worse for the Labour Party, a slide in support for Labour and an increase for the National Party. It continues a long trend of good leads for the Nats.

New Zealand could get a new PM and a government that will not need coalition partners.

That's according to results from the latest ONE News Colmar-Brunton poll.

It shows National has increased its lead over Labour and only one other party reached the five percent threshold.

It seems the gaffe prone John Key was not able to hurt his party's lead to the top, with Labour's scorn so far failing to break his dream run.

The poll also found that Winston Peters still has some support, but it's the Maori Party that is increasingly looking like king makers at this election and there are few words of comfort for Helen Clark.
Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples says Clark has been great, but that now she may be nearing the end of her time.

And with just over a month of campaigning to go, numbers suggest he may be right.

National is leading, with 52% of voters saying they are most likely to vote for the centre-right party. Labour has slid to 33% in the poll.

Those votes may have gone to the Greens, now on 7%.

The Maori Party rates 2.5%, while New Zealand First is still in trouble on 2% and Act on 1.5%.

When you translate that to seats in Parliament, National could govern alone with 65 seats.

Labour is in opposition with 41. The Greens pick up eight seats and assuming current electorates are held, the Maori Party has four.

Act has two and United Future and the Progressives one seat each.

It can be hard for the minor parties to get much of a look in, with intense interest in the battle to be Prime Minister.

But that battle is being won by John Key too, with 41% preferring him as NZ's next Prime Minister.

Key has a 10 point clear lead against Helen Clark who sits at 31%. Three percent of voters are still picking Winston Peters as the next preferred PM.

So far the campaign has largely been a series of photo opportunities, but that all changes on Monday.

The government accounts are to be revealed. Then National on Wednesday will unveil its vision for tax cuts, as the economy takes centre stage.

Voters were also asked on their feelings about the New Zealand economy and whether they felt the economy would get better or worse in the next 12 months.

The latest results show that economic confidence has plummeted.

The percentage of those optimistic about the economy stood at 41%, down nine percent, while those pessimistic about the economy stood at 38%, which was up 11%.

Economic woes may put extra added pressure on National.

After talking up expectations on tax cuts of around $50 a week for the average Kiwi, the party will need to show how they plan to make that possible in the current financial climate.

National is understood to be partly funding the tax cuts by reducing the amount of government money in the KiwiSaver scheme.

While that may be seen as a loss for New Zealanders, even more important for National will be to show that the party will be able to manage the recession-hit New Zealand economy during such precarious times.

It will be interesting to see Helen Clark's reaction to the reults tomorrow. Will it be another "Fairy Tale" as she said of the last Fairfax Neilson Poll?

Related Colmar Brunton Polls

c Political Animal 2008

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