National is steady on 45.1 percent, and Labour actually drops to 37.4 percent. But the Greens are on 8.8 percent, and can be added to Labour's total.
New Zealand First has crept up to 3.5 percent, so Winston Peters cannot be ruled out making a return to Parliament. National leader John Key will be sweating - remember he has ruled working with Peters out.
The Maori Party is on 2.3 percent, but they are expected to win six, or perhaps even all seven Maori seats. ACT is on 1.7 percent, with just two MPs.
Peter Dunne's United Future is pretty unpopular, polling at 0.2 percent, as were the Progressives, on 0.1.
On this poll, Parliament would overhang to 123 seats. National would have 57 seats, ACT two, and United Future one – a total of 60 seats, and not enough to govern. In opposition Labour has 47 seats, the Greens 11 and the Progressives one – a total of 59, also not enough to govern.
The TNS poll is one of 4 different political polls done in New Zealand and the most inaccurate of the 4.
Other polls have shown a much larger lead for national and have consistently done so for almost 2 years.
c Political Animal 2008