The New Zealand Herald Digipoll for November 7 2008 shows the Nats ahead by just under 12 points, the lowest margin of all the polls out in the last 24 hours. The TV3 TNS and Colmar Brunton had similar margins, while today's Fairfax Nielson poll has National ahead by 18 points.
It shows National could form a new government with micro-parties Act and United Future. The three parties would have 64 seats between them, two more than the majority needed.
They would not need the support of the Maori Party to govern, although National leader John Key has said he would try to work with the party even if he did not need it.
National's support has fallen 2.5 points in the past fortnight to 47.9 per cent.
It is the first time it has been below 50 per cent since March this year.
But Mr Key is well ahead as preferred Prime Minister, with 46.2 per cent support, compared to Helen Clark's 41.6 per cent. More
Clark has come out today and said her polling suggests she will win on November 7.