The latest Colmar Brunton TV One poll for November 6 2008 still has National significantly ahead of Labour-the same margin as the previous Colmar Brunton poll.
The Greens have continued their strong run, up one point to 9% while Act has also had a late burst, now up to 2.5%.
New Zealand First looks dead in the water at 2.4%, and the party vote for the Maori Party has fallen away to 1.3%.
With a 122 seat parliament, (needing 62 seats to get a majority), who could form a government on these latest poll results?
Labour would have 43 seats, the Greens are on Labour's side with 12, the Progressives have one seat, but even if you add in the Maori Party's probable four seats, Clark can only muster 60 seats - two seats short of the majority which is required to govern. More
To me this poll is conservative in its lead for National as it doesn't take the "mood of the nation" into account. That mood is for change and it is apparent everywhere you go.
The accuracy of the Colmar poll is confirmed by the TV3 TNS poll out today.
John Key would have to be found sleeping with his sister to lose on November 8.